Photo : Website of the Prime Minister of Kazakhstan/Euractiv
04 February 2023, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #428
War in Ukraine: Day 345
By Madhura S Mahesh
War on the Ground
On 03 February, Ukraine’s Joint Forces Commander Lieutenant General Serhiy Naiev said that protection and defence key infrastructure in Northern Ukraine has been bolstered. Naiev said that this was done to prevent potential attacks by Russia. He added: “..fire control points have been set up on the likely routes of advance, as well as interaction channels among units of all Defense Forces involved.” He said that the air space is being constantly monitored and border patrols are being held regularly.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 03 February, Russian Federation Council’s First Deputy Chairman Vladimir Dzhabarov confirmed that Russia will be taking part in the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly session in Austria. Dzhabarov said that the matter of Russia’s removal from the OSCE will be brought up again and added that Russia is ready for discussion. He also said: “We will not become hysterical but will be informing those present about our position clearly and firmly.” He acknowledged that the delegation is aware of the security risks and said: “We are sure that the Austrian side will spare no effort to ensure the security of this event.”
On 03 February, Russia's Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denied the claims that the US had presented a peace plan where Ukraine will forfeit 20 per cent of their territory in exchange for peace. Peskov called the claims a “canard.” This comes as Neue Zurcher Zeitung, a Swiss newspaper, said that Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director William Burns had visited Russia and presented this plan to Russia on the orders of US President Joe Biden.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 03 February, German government spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit said that the government has permitted the export of older Leopard 1 main battle tanks to Ukraine. The government had granted an export licence to military manufacturers who currently have around 29 Leopard 1s in storage. Two of the manufacturers were ready to deliver the tanks once they are refurbished.
On 03 February, the UK Defence Intelligence said the number of people recruited through Wagner Group’s convict recruitment programme has reduced significantly compared to the summer and autumn of 2022. It said that the Russian Federal Penal Service (FSIN) data published on 31 January 2023 showed that the national penal population was 433,000 and reported a decrease of 6000 inmates compared to November 2022. This decrease is comparatively less when compared to the decrease from September 2022 to November 2022 where it was 23,000. Additionally, the UK Defence Intelligence said in the last 10 days assaults by Wagner convicts have decreased. This can be attributed to the rising tensions between the Russian Ministry of Defence and the Wagner Group.
On 02 February, Czech Republic's President Petr Pavel said that conventional military aid to Ukraine should have “no limits.” Pavel said that Ukraine should be supplied with all types of weapons barring nuclear arms. He said: “Ukraine cannot fight a tough opponent like this without armoured technologies, unmanned aerial vehicles, artillery and longer-range rockets, but maybe also supersonic aircraft.” Pavel also iterated his support for Ukraine’s accession to the EU and NATO and added that Ukraine’s accession to NATO was “a matter of political will.” He also said that the war will end when Russia withdraws from Ukraine, peace talks begin, reconstruction of Ukraine and investigation of war crimes.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the war
On 02 February, Daily NK reported that the North Korean government has allegedly asked its trading companies in Russia to send select personnel to eastern Ukraine to aid in reconstruction. The report references an order issued on 20 February to the trading companies in Russia which include Cholhyon Construction and Kumrung Construction which are affiliated with the North Korean defence ministry. The report claims that North Korea will be deploying soldiers or police personnel due to the ease of providing safety measures to security personnel than civilians. The Daily NK claims that the selected personnel will be sent to Eastern Ukraine from mid-Februaray to March and will help in reconstruction efforts and repair destroyed buildings and roads.
References
“In Ukraine’s north, critical infrastructure heavily guarded against subversive groups,” Ukrinform, 03 2023
“Russia to take part in OSCE Parliamentary Assembly session in February — lawmaker,” Tass, 03 February 2023
“Kremlin blasts ‘canard’ that US allegedly offered to cede 20% of Ukraine's territory,” Tass, 03 February
2023
“Ukraine updates: Germany approves export of Leopard 1 tanks,” Deutsche Welle, 03 February 2023
"Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 3 February 2023,” Twitter, 03 February 2023
“New Czech leader urges 'no limits' on aid to Ukraine,” France24, 02 February 2023
"N. Korea orders trading companies in Russia to select personnel to send to Ukraine,” Daily NK, 02 February 2023
IN BRIEF
By Femy Francis
BELGIUM
Government plans to extend the life of nuclear reactors due to be down by 2025
On 03 February, Deutsche Welle reports Belgium's government plans to increase the life of three of its nuclear reactors needing to reduce the risks in energy supply due to the Ukraine war, initially timed to be halted by 2025. On 02 February Belgium took Tihange 2 off its power after 40 years as part of their nuclear phase-out plan. These reactors were known for safety issues and were found with cracks in vessels. In 2019 Belgium infringed the European Union Law by failing to test out the required environmental assessment. (“Belgium looks to extend lives of oldest nuclear reactors,” Deutsche Welle,03 February 2023)
BULGARIA
Galab Donev to act as Prime Minister until April snap elections
On 02 February, Bulgaria announced another snap election in April 2023 and till then the interim government chosen by President Rumen Radev headed by his Advisor Galab Donev as Prime Minister would continue. President's Continued influence has been in light of criticism by most parties for forming a presidential republic with caretaker cabinets. (“As Bulgaria Schedules Another Election, President’s Interim Govt Assumes Power,” Balkan Insight, 02 February 2023)
ITALY
Eight asylum seekers dead while crossing from Tunisia to Italy
On 03 February, eight asylum seekers lost their life’s migrating from Tunisia to Italy. The coastguards were only able to rescue 42 people as the vessel had gone adrift. NGOs and lawmakers blamed the harsh policies by right-wing PM Giorgia Meloni prosecuting volunteer rescuers and the boats they used. It's estimated 4,963 immigrated in 2023 and 3,035 immigrated in 2022. (“Eight asylum seekers killed off Italian island of Lampedusa,” Deutsche Welle,03 February 2023)
SWITZERLAND
FOPH to address the shortage of medicines
On 03 February, The Swiss Info reports there has been a shortage of medicines. The government is being suggested to increase the mandatory reserves for drugs like Anti-epileptic and mental disorder medicines should be included. The shortage of medicines mainly affects children, especially during the flu season. Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH) intends to develop a plan for proper medicine procurement. (“Faced with shortages, Switzerland plans to boost drug stocks," Swissinfo, 03 February 2023)
THE UK
UK Athletics agency asks for sports exemption: banning transgender athletes for women’s events
On 03 February, the UK Athletics agency moved the British government to alter the law stating “sports exemption” allowing the agency to ban transgender athletes from competing in women’s events. UKA states the lack of “scientifically robust, independent research showing that all male performance advantage is eliminated following testosterone suppression." (“UK Athletics seeks trans athlete ban,” Deutsche Welle,03 February 2023)
INTERNATIONAL
Belarus, UAE and Zimbabwe: strengthening long term relationship
On 03 February, The Belta reported Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko’s visit to Zimbabwe secured the foundation for cooperation between UAE and Zimbabwe. Eight bilateral agreements were signed in Harare which stated encouragement and mutual protection of investment. They also stated a joint commission for cooperation, avoiding double taxation and prevention of tax invasion and the agreement to twin the cities of Minsk and Harare. A Zimbabwean embassy is to be opened in Belarus in order to enhance cooperation. (“Long-term agreements. Results of Lukashenko's visit to UAE, Zimbabwe summarized,” Belta, 03 February 2023)
Kazakhstan closed its trade mission with Russia
On 03 February, Kazakhstan announces the closing of the trade mission with Russia stating “On some issues of the Ministry of Trade and Integration of the Republic of Kazakhstan”. This comes during the visit by Russian PM Mikhail Mishustin to the Eurasian economic union (EAEU). This move is estimated to be caused by the country facing difficulties after sanctions on Russia and doesn’t want to appear as a sanction breaker while showing its encouragement to solidify its relationship with the EU. (Georgi Gotev, "Kazakhstan closes trade mission in Russia during PM Mishustin’s visit,” Euractiv, 03 February 2023)